Roadmap for Local Heating Transition

How can the heating sector be decarbonized quickly and in an economically sustainable way? Which technologies should be used for this? These and other questions about the heating transition are of concern to municipalities and heating providers alike. Fichtner’s heat planning provides answers. A team of experts combines experience gained from many projects with knowledge of the heating market, generation and infrastructure, and develops individual heating concepts based on tried-and-tested IT tools.

Our heat planning service provides local and district heating providers as well as municipalities with tailor-made concepts that ensure a climate-neutral and economical heating supply for the future. It focuses on the feasibility and affordability of the heating transition.

The following points describe the approach we recommend:

1. Developing a Reliable Database

The first step in heat planning is to create a solid database. To do so, the data is taken from sources such as geographical information systems, energy data management systems or asset databases, checked for completeness and consistency, and refined if necessary. If data is missing, for example on the building structure, it is ideally purchased or collected, or it is ascertained and incorporated using statistical methods.

2. Creating a Digital Image

Based on the data, Fichtner’s team of experts creates a digital image in its HeatPlanner, which is a module of our “Fichtner Digital Grid” IT solution. This is a multi-client-capable software-as-a-service solution that clients can use interactively via a browser. Depending on the available database, this image contains, for example, the following:

• Building data differentiated by age, building type and type of use
• Current heating requirements of the properties and districts
• Infrastructure, e.g. district/local heating lines or gas grid (including related data)
• Utility plants and their key characteristics (type, output, characteristic curves)
• Renewable heat potential, for example from unavoidable waste heat, deep geothermal and solar thermal energy or wastewater
• Potential energy savings by increasing energy efficiency in existing buildings

3. Defining the Framework and Target Scenario

The framework for the planning is also incorporated, such as a preference for or avoidance of certain technologies or the potential for sector coupling. The framework for the target scenario is set together with the client – such as minimum assumptions for renovation or the expansion of renewable heat generation for a conservative scenario, or upper limits for an optimistic scenario.

4. Evaluating Heating Demand and Forecasting

Based on the digital image in the HeatPlanner, the future heating requirements can be forecast and visualized using statistical data and regionally available information – for example on the renovation status of buildings and districts. Factors such as climate change, changes in population figures, and potential development areas are also taken into account. Key data for further heat planning such as heat density (consumption per area) or heat line density (consumption along a street or similar) can be adjusted with the software according to the parameters for different scenarios.

5. Developing Target Images for Heat Planning

Options for the future heat supply can be derived from the available data and forecasts. In the case of a heating utility company, for example, these would comprise the following key results:

• Determining the future heating sales potential for specific target years
• Identifying expansion and new-build potential in the heating grid
• Street-specific representation of a (climate-neutral) heating supply structure
• Possible heat generation technologies or usable sources

In the course of heat planning, the team also works out how the heat generation fleet can be transformed or expanded, what impact it will have on the electricity grid (e.g. if large heat pumps are used) and how high the expected investment and lifecycle costs will be. Clients benefit in this respect from Fichtner’s interdisciplinary expertise. Specialists from the fields of structural and civil engineering, power plant and plant construction, electrical engineering, infrastructure, and experts on the heating market contribute their knowledge to the analysis of potential and the evaluation.

The target images and target development paths developed by Fichtner are open-ended. This means that industrial and commercial waste, (deep) geothermal energy or heat pump solutions, power-to-heat, green gases or hydrogen and many other options can be considered as heat sources. After checking their feasibility, they can also be compared in realistic economic viability assessments.

Result: Roadmap to a Climate-Neutral Heating Supply

As a result of our heat planning, clients obtain a documented roadmap for the expansion of their grids and the adaptation of generation plants, along with recommendations. Since this also includes, for example, new development areas or properties not yet connected to a heating grid (redensification), there is often the potential to gain new customers.

Roadmap for Business Development or Municipal Heat Planning

Our heat planning therefore gives heating providers a guide to the heating transition that satisfies strategists, technical experts and financial controllers alike, while municipal administrations are provided with a reliable basis for their municipal heat planning. Licensees of our “Fichtner Digital Grid” IT solution also have maximum insight during the planning process and can continue to use the application interactively in a modern front end, along with their own data that is stored in it.

July 2024

Weblink:

Fichtner Digital Grid | Fichtner Digital Grid